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行情周报 | 厄尔尼诺越演越烈，东亚暖冬可能性增加；屠宰企业产量下降，原料毛绒供应量缩减

2023-08-20 来源：金绒浏览量：804

Summary

The market will generally rise in the 34th week of 2023 (8.14-8.20).

Recently, the supply of ducks in the market has been low, the production volume of slaughterhouses has also declined, and there are plans to avoid parking, and the supply of raw material wool has also been reduced. In addition, the high temperature in the north continues, and the down content of the raw material duck feathers has decreased, thus increasing the procurement costs of down companies.

Entering mid-August, the downstream textile market began to gradually exert its strength, with inquiries and purchases increasing slightly. As the autumn and winter markets gradually open up, the operating rates of downstream product companies have increased. The markets have begun to launch their own flagship autumn and winter products, and the finished down market has been boosted by this.

Looking back on the past August, product companies will be in a state of placing orders for the entire month. However, consumption is sluggish this year, and clothing companies are also in recession, so it seems that this year's purchasing season will be relatively urgent. The "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" have entered the countdown, and will usher in the most important node in the second half of the year - Double Eleven.

Good news this week

Douyin e-commerce list released in July, down jackets occupy the most popular list in the women's clothing industry

Douyin's e-commerce rankings in various dimensions in July show that there has been a sales boom for off-season products, with down jackets occupying most of the hot spots in the women's clothing industry in July.

The list of women's clothing brands in July has changed significantly compared to the previous one. The top three are Yaya, Aiyifu and Jiaoxia. Among them, Aiyi Server has become the biggest dark horse, jumping to the second place from having never been on the list. Yalu, which is famous for its down jackets, is also on the list.

In terms of store rankings, the top three are Jiaoxia Official Flagship Store, CO CO ZONE Clothing Flagship Store, and Mutu Official Flagship Store, while YAYA Duck Down Jacket Flagship Store dropped to ninth place.

In terms of popular products, Jiaoxia Cooling Sun Protection Clothes, CO CO ZONE Outdoor Jackets, and Qiaitai Tibing Silk Beautiful Back Underwear are the top three. In addition, down jacket products are highly sought after by users. Govan's black gold goose down jacket, duck windproof down jacket, snow flying mid-length down jacket and Yalu mid-length down jacket occupy most of the spots on the list.

source | TopKlout克劳锐

Clothing wholesale in Guangzhou is booming, and merchants are optimistic about the autumn clothing market

In the lobby of a clothing company in Guangzhou, Guangdong, the lobby is filled with clothing dealers from all over the country, who are waiting for a clothing ordering meeting to be held in the afternoon.

Ms. Hao, a clothing buyer from Hebei, said that the overall sales performance of the clothing business this year is actually good, so she is confident about the market outlook and decided to increase order volume, which is about 50% higher than last year.

It is understood that starting from the end of August, the production of summer clothing will be gradually completed, and autumn clothing and spring and summer clothing in 2024 will become the main products. Judging from the current order situation, whether it is autumn clothing orders or next year's spring and summer clothing orders, the number has increased significantly.

As clothing sales pick up, the market popularity of clothing wholesale is steadily improving. Data released by the China National Textile and Apparel Industry Federation show that in July this year, the prosperity index of my country's textile and apparel professional market managers was 51.24, an increase of 2.42 percentage points from June.

source | 央视财经

Cloth sellers have already started preparing for the peak season in the second half of the year

It's already mid-August, but there seems to be no movement in the market, and there are still fabric manufacturers selling goods at low prices.Manager Ma, who specializes in down jacket linings, said: "They are all very cheap fabrics, 2-3 cents lower than the normal price per meter, and the selling price is only a little more than one piece, which means you lose money based on how much you sell. "

Manager Tang also said: "Recently, there has been a lot of 300T pongee spinning, which is only 1.45 yuan/meter, and the cost is 1.65 yuan/meter." According to data monitoring from Silkdu.com, the inventory of water-jet gray fabrics in Shengze area is 36.1 days old. . As inventories get higher and higher, selling goods has become the most efficient way to resolve financial pressure.

Even though the off-season is still here, the inventory of gray fabrics is slightly higher, but the production enthusiasm of weaving factories is still acceptable.According to monitoring data from Silkdu.com, the current operating rate of weaving factories is 68.5%, an increase of 0.5% from last week. Although the increase is not large, it shows an upward trend. Fabric bosses have begun to prepare for the peak season in the second half of the year.

Mr. Hu, who mainly produces T400 fabrics, said: "Currently, the production capacity is 100%, and the production capacity should not drop in the future. The orders at this stage are pretty good. "However, Mr. Guo, who mainly deals in polyester taffeta and taslan spot goods, said that the operating rate is about 80%, and it should not increase too much in the future.

source | 布工厂

本周利空消息

厄尔尼诺越演越烈，东亚暖冬逼近

在南半球进入前所未有的酷热冬季后，美国气候预测中心近日警告，从今年12月到明年2月，厄尔尼诺现象持续的可能性超过95%。这意味着北半球的冬季气温极可能出现异常，加剧热浪和洪水出现的风险。

美国气候预测中心还表示，鉴于7月的数据，其更相信会出现强厄尔尼诺现象。今年冬天的海洋尼诺指数峰值，很有可能（大约三分之一）将达到或超过1.5℃。

厄尔尼诺现象对全球气候最广泛的影响发生在冬季和早春（北半球季节术语），典型影响包括美国南部、南美洲东南部、非洲之角周围和东亚出现更多降雨和风暴。

中国、日本等东亚国家可能会出现暖冬和少雪，导致冬季农作物受损、供暖需求增加和滑雪场经营困难。不过包括加州在内的整个美国南部三分之一至一半地区可能会因厄尔尼诺现象而更加潮湿，出现冷冬和多雪。

这对羽绒服企业可并不是好讯号，他们的竞品或许又多了一些。而气候变化的影响也早已悄悄渗透在服装行业。

今年，意大利的一些服装零售商希望夏季折扣季推迟到7月中旬开始，而以往通常在7月初开始。消费者可能更倾向于买一些多场景适用的衣服，这将迫使品牌不得不调整自己的季节性商品规划。

来源 | 金绒采编自NOAA、ENSO博客

即将出伏，鸭苗供应面或将快速增加

进入8月中旬，即将出伏，高温对肉禽各品种产能的影响逐步减弱，进入产能恢复阶段。

按照白羽肉鸭养殖周期推算，15-20日补栏对应出栏，接近中秋、国庆双节屠宰停宰期，近期周度苗价走势十分值得关注！

据 Mysteel 农产品市场调研，从鸭苗供应面来看，当前后备、换羽种鸭陆续开产后供应逐步增加状态，若不出现集中淘鸭情况下，随着20号出伏，苗量将快速增加。

第33周（8/7-8/13）期间，行业预估平均约1150-1180万羽/天，相较上一周下降。高温、高湿天气对出苗量的影响仍在，产蛋率的恢复正常仍需要时间。

来源 | Mysteel、水禽行情网

今年上半年或是有史以来进口羽绒羽毛最多的时期

今年上半年，我国羽绒羽毛的进口数量为 16899 吨，同比去年增长了 58.7% ；进口金额为 8.38 亿元人民币，同比去年增长了 56.7% 。

其中，2023年3月是2015年以来，进口羽绒羽毛数量最多的一个月，比排行第二的2021年12月多了26%，而2023年6月排行第三，再次的是2023年4月。

由此已足以看出，2023年上半年，其实就是2015年以来，进口羽绒羽毛最多的一个上半年，甚至是有史以来进口最多的一段时期。

在今年成品羽绒价格高企的情况下，似乎进口更多的羽绒羽毛，很应是理所当然的事情。

只是这些进口的羽绒羽毛，又去了哪些地方呢？是直接送了去做羽绒服吗？

据海关数据统计，2023年上半年进口羽绒羽毛最多的是广西壮族自治区，进口数量为 4576 吨，占比为27%；其次为安徽省，进口数量为 3186 吨，占比为19%；跟着是浙江省，进口数量为 2946 吨，占比为17%。

而据港南区相关信息显示，2023年第一季度，该地进口羽毛羽绒约 0.7 万吨，约占我国羽毛羽绒进口总量的 70%。

随着港南区羽绒产业园各羽毛羽绒加工项目建成投产，2023年底羽毛羽绒进口需求量预计可达3万吨，2024年进口需求量预计可达5万吨。

来源 | 金绒采编，数据来自海关、港南宣传

世界多国出口连续下滑，短期内颓势难逆

近来，因外部需求不振、持续萎靡等因素影响，世界各国进出口贸易都不太理想。短期内全球贸易的萎靡态势难以迅速扭转，而出口的下滑或将对经济增长造成持续影响。

越南统计局的数据显示，越南7月出口收缩3.5%，出口连续5个月下滑，创14年来最长跌幅。主心骨的纺织业也困难重重，今年一季度出口已订单下滑了70%—80%，导致4.29万家工厂停工，而二季度的订单又下降80%。

韩国产业通商资源部公布的数据显示，韩国7月份出口额同比下降16.5%，至503.3亿美元，为连续第十个月下滑，并创下自2020年5月以来最大降幅。

2023年1-6月，日本自全球进口总值下降7.8%。 6月单月，日本进口金额616.01亿美元，同比下降17.62%；出口金额619.06亿美元，同比下降3.72%。自2022年4月份以来，日本对外出口已经连续15个月下降。。

美国商务部8月8日披露数据，6月商品和服务出口额下降3亿美元至2475亿美元，进口额下降31亿美元至3130亿美元。

不过，还是有部分国家的出口实现了逆势增长。同样是纺织大国的土耳其，7月份出口同比增长8.4%，达到200.93亿美元，创历史最高纪录。

来源 | 浙江贸促综合整理

消息面情况

本周消息面，利空多于利好，但影响会在较迟阶段发生。

目前，服装经销商业绩尚可，秋冬装也渐渐成为主力产品，羽绒服的反季销售更是一下子多了起来，而上游的织造工厂也已经开始备战下半年旺季。

我国的出口情况现正处于下行趋势，不过在人民币对美元汇率持续下挫的情况下，或可提高出口商品的竞争力，进而通过增加出口拉动经济增长。另据海关数据，7月的羽绒及其制品出口环比6月有所增长。

厄尔尼诺的发展已不可忽视，但其并非暖冬的绝对因素。在全球变暖的气候演变过程中，冷空气会不时地从极地“挤”出，导致北美、东亚、欧洲等地区轮番出现冷冬，因此仍难判定今冬到底是暖冬还是冷冬。

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